A simplified two-variable formula for projecting U.S. monthly housing starts

This note describes a two-variable formula that projects, by month, U.S. single- and multifamily housing starts. It is based on a more complex formulation found in a widely used econometric model of the U.S. economy. The simpler formulation yielded results almost as accurate as the more complex version for single-family housing starts, but was somewhat less accurate for multifamily starts. The formula may be useful to softwood lumber and panel manufacturers for shortrun projections of U.S. housing starts.

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