Prospects for U.S. Trade in Timber Products

This is the third paper in a series of four that examines U.S. trade prospects and their implications to the year 2030. Other than cross-border trade with Canada, future U.S. exports of wood and paper products will continue to focus on the Japanese and European markets. Exports of solid wood products are expected to expand until 1990 and then gradually decline. Part of this drop in exports will be due to the eventual depletion of the old-growth softwood sawtimber in the Pacific Northwest. Second growth timber will not provide the high quality, clear lumber, and large timbers that are currently sought on the export market. Another factor which will contribute to the drop in exports is the anticipated growth in domestic demand. Faced with a strong domestic market, U.S. producers will have less incentive to push foreign sales. Exports of fiber-base products are also expected to be focused on the European and Japanese markets. Exports of pulpwood and chips are expected to decline slowly after peaking in 1990. Exports of woodpulp and paper and paperboard are expected to rise slowly throughout the projection period as a result of growing world demands. A strong domestic market, however, will reduce the incentive for U.S. producers to develop export rather than domestic sales.

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