A revised examination of hardwood lumber exports to the Pacific Rim

Asian exports were one of the most frequently discussed components of the hardwood lumber market in the 1980s. Much of this attention was the result of the apparent growth in Asian exports from 22 to 414 million board feet (MMBF) between 1980 and 1988. However, findings indicate that 1988 exports were only 208 MMBF or nearly one-half of the officially reported volume. The inflated value of prior export estimates was the result of problems in U.S. Department of Commerce computer programs that screened and compiled export statistics, combined with incorrect filing of export declarations. Fortunately, most of the problems causing hardwood lumber exports to be overestimated were corrected in May 1989. This paper explains how prior estimates of hardwood lumber exports came to be in error, presents a new set of hardwood lumber export figures developed from ship manifests, and compares the new estimates against lumber import statistics of major Asian markets.

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