Changing U.S. Softwood Timber Markets and International Trade Trends, with Implications for Domestic Forest Products Production

A review of U.S. and international softwood timber harvest and demand data indicates the potential for more concentration of domestic timber production capacity in the South than previously anticipated. For several decades, as total U.S. timber demand expanded, other timber producing regions shared in this expansion, especially the Pacific Northwest. However, for the next 15 years, expansion is likely to be more concentrated in the South, and to a lesser extent in the North, due to important changes in basic market determinants, as well as the application of new technology. The 1980 Census of Population shows that approximately 80 Percent of the total U.S. population is now located east of the 100th meridian. Thus, with annual paper consumption at around 600 pounds per capita and more than 50 percent of all housing starts located in the South, population will continue to have a strong influence on the location of new timber plant capacities. The development and application of new timber processing technology has been particularly aggressive and successful in the South. Softwood plywood production expanded rapidly in the 1970s, and new structural flakeboard installations will continue to provide competitively priced products for the expanding southern housing market. International timber trade has added a new dimension to domestic demand and supply considerations in recent years, and it is likely to continue to be important. Greatly expanded Canadian forest products imports have significantly impacted many markets previously supplied by domestic producers, especially softwood lumber producers. Canadian lumber imports appear to have made significant inroads in midwestern and northeastern markets previously supplied by western producers. This has contributed to the recent disappointing production levels for U.S. lumber producers in the West and has spurred their interest in Pacific export markets.

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