Efficacy of curtailment announcements as a predictor of lumber supply

A practical method for tracking the effect of curtailment announcements on lumber supply is described and tested. Combining announcements of closures and curtailment with mill capacities enables the creation of accurate forward-looking assessments of lumber supply 1 to 2 months into the future. For three American and Canadian lumber-producing regions, the method produced projections of supply that were within 0.5 percent accuracy for a 7-month period encompassing June to December 2000. Announcements of production intentions are an important piece of market intelligence that can help guide assessments of demand-supply in a volatile market environment.

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