Factors affecting Japanese hardwood lumber imports, 1976 to 1990

Over the past 1.5 years, U.S. hardwood lumber exports to Japan have grown from a relatively small volume to a peak of over 135 million board feet in 1989. During this period, the U.S. share of all Japanese lumber imports rose from about 3 or 4 percent in the mid-to-late 1970s to nearly 20 percent in 1990. This paper examines factors that have influenced the growth of Japanese imports of U.S. hardwood lumber. These factors include: 1) exchange rates; 2) prices of U.S. temperate, non-U.S. temperate, and tropical hardwoods imports; and 3) economic growth in Japan. The paper concludes with a discussion of geopolitical changes that are likely to affect future U.S. hardwood lumber exports to Japan through the variables under examination.

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