Recent trends in Vermont stumpage prices

Quarterly stumpage prices for 10 forest products were analyzed to determine the effects of season, region, and their interaction on reported price and to ascertain the existence of consistent reporting group bias. The stumpage prices were collected by the Extension Service in Vermont since the third quarter of 1981. Based on the results of multivariate analysis of variance: 1) there was no seasonal effect; 2) region effect was significant for 8 of the 10 products; and 3) there was a significant season by region effect only for sugar maple sawtimber. Average sawtimber prices generally increased from north to south. Pulpwood and firewood prices increased from south to north. The regional effect can largely be explained by the location of markets, timber resource distribution, and regional timber quality differences. Consistent reporting group bias was tested for forester- versus logger-reported prices (seller/buyer differential) and private consulting forester- versus public forester-reported prices (private/public differential). There was some evidence of reporting group bias, but the magnitude of the bias was small. An analysis of real rates of change in price from the third quarter of 1981 (III Q 1981) through the first quarter of 1987 (I Q 1987) indicated largely declining prices, with the exception of red oak sawtimber, which had a rate of increase of 8.8 percent annually.

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