Trends in Softwood Sawmill Overruns and Their Impact on Stumpage Prices

Factors affecting the average overrun in U.S. softwood sawmills, and the impact of changes in overrun on stumpage prices, are discussed. Log length, diameter, taper, defects, output mix, lumber size standards, and sawmilling technology are identified as determinants of overrun. The cumulative impact that changes in these factors have had in five regions was examined by comparing average overruns from studies and surveys conducted over the past 2 decades. The data showed significant increases. Major jumps were registered in the early 1970s as more liberal lumber size standards were implemented. More gradual upward trends were evident during other periods reflecting technological improvements and the growing utilization of smaller, second-growth timber. The ability of mills to “recover” greater volumes of lumber from a given input of logs can be viewed as a factor contributing to the stumpage price inflation that has occurred over the past 15 years. This is because log prices, reported on a log scale basis, have no explicit correction for changes in recovery rates.

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