World Softwood Lumber Trade: Patterns, Trends, and Prospects

Over the past 10 years, U.S. producers improved their position in international softwood lumber markets although Canada, the U.S.S.R. and Scandinavia remain the predominant exporters. The United States is concurrently the fourth major exporter of softwood lumber and the major importer, taking about one-third of the total world imports. The other two major importing areas have been Europe (except Scandinavia) and Japan. The Scandinavians are the major supplier to the important European market although in recent years they have lost a portion of this market to suppliers from the U.S.S.R. and from within Europe. The Japanese market is dominated by suppliers from North America; U.S. exporters have expanded their share of Japanese imports over the past 10 years. World lumber consumption is projected to increase by nearly 50 percent by the end of the century. Europe, the United States, and Japan will likely continue to be the major softwood lumber importers. Increasing lumber requirements coupled with expected supply problems in the traditionally competing supply area of Scandinavia and the U.S.S.R. indicate that North American producers can be expected to play a more important supply role in world softwood lumber markets. This, in turn, points to added pressure on North American softwood resources.

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